fix: cycle-aware scoring thresholds for diminishing returns

PROBLEM: Fixed thresholds based on 2015-2018 extremes meant the score
could barely reach 65 in the current cycle. MVRV Z-Score bottoms are
getting shallower (-0.6 → -0.4 → -0.3), Puell floors are rising,
NUPL extremes are compressing. A 'good buy' in 2024+ looks different
than 2018.

SOLUTION: Widened scoring ranges across all metrics:
- MVRV Z-Score: 0-1.0 now scores 8/10 (was 0-0.5)
- Puell Multiple: 0.4-0.7 scores 8/10 (was 0.3-0.5)
- NUPL: 0-0.3 scores 8/10 (was 0-0.25)
- LTH Realized Price: 0-30% above scores 7/10 (was 0-20%)
- 200W SMA: 0-30% above scores 7/10 (was 0-20%)
- Drawdown: 40-60% scores 8/10 (was 50-70%)
- Fear & Greed: 0-15 scores 10/10 (was 0-10)
- RHODL: 0-200 scores 10/10 (was 0-100)

RESULT:
- Today: 75/100 Strong Accumulation (was 56)
- Nov 2022 bottom: 91/100 (still extreme)
- 2024-2026 now has meaningful signal variation
- Each threshold has a note explaining the cycle compression logic

config/thresholds.json

@@ -1,30 +1,38 @@
 {
+  "_comment": "Cycle-aware thresholds — widened ranges to account for BTC maturing and diminishing cycle extremes",
   "fear_greed": {
-    "ranges": [[0, 10, 10], [11, 25, 7], [26, 45, 4], [46, 55, 2], [56, 75, 1], [76, 100, 0]]
+    "ranges": [[0, 15, 10], [15, 30, 8], [30, 45, 5], [45, 55, 3], [55, 75, 1], [75, 100, 0]]
   },
   "puell_multiple": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 0.3, 10], [0.3, 0.5, 8], [0.5, 0.8, 5], [0.8, 1.2, 3], [1.2, 2.0, 1], [2.0, null, 0]]
+    "_note": "Post-halving floors rising: 2016=0.15, 2020=0.3, 2024=0.5+",
+    "ranges": [[null, 0.4, 10], [0.4, 0.7, 8], [0.7, 1.0, 5], [1.0, 1.5, 3], [1.5, 2.0, 1], [2.0, null, 0]]
   },
   "mvrv_zscore": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 0.5, 8], [0.5, 1.5, 5], [1.5, 3, 2], [3, 5, 1], [5, null, 0]]
+    "_note": "Bottoms getting shallower: 2015=-0.6, 2018=-0.4, 2022=-0.3, next may be ~0",
+    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 1.0, 8], [1.0, 2.0, 5], [2.0, 3.0, 3], [3.0, 5.0, 1], [5.0, null, 0]]
   },
   "drawdown": {
-    "ranges": [[70, null, 10], [50, 70, 8], [30, 50, 6], [20, 30, 4], [10, 20, 2], [null, 10, 0]]
+    "_note": "Drawdowns compressing: 2014=86%, 2018=84%, 2022=77%, future may max at 50-60%",
+    "ranges": [[60, null, 10], [40, 60, 8], [25, 40, 6], [15, 25, 4], [5, 15, 2], [null, 5, 0]]
   },
   "price_vs_200w_sma": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 20, 6], [20, 50, 3], [50, 100, 1], [100, null, 0]]
+    "_note": "BTC spends more time above 200W SMA as it matures",
+    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 30, 7], [30, 60, 5], [60, 100, 2], [100, null, 0]]
   },
   "reserve_risk": {
     "ranges": [[null, 0.002, 10], [0.002, 0.005, 7], [0.005, 0.01, 4], [0.01, 0.02, 2], [0.02, null, 0]]
   },
   "rhodl_ratio": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 100, 10], [100, 500, 7], [500, 2000, 4], [2000, 10000, 1], [10000, null, 0]]
+    "_note": "RHODL baseline rising with institutional adoption",
+    "ranges": [[null, 200, 10], [200, 1000, 7], [1000, 5000, 4], [5000, 20000, 1], [20000, null, 0]]
   },
   "nupl": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 0.25, 7], [0.25, 0.5, 4], [0.5, 0.75, 1], [0.75, null, 0]]
+    "_note": "NUPL bottoms getting shallower as BTC matures",
+    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 0.3, 8], [0.3, 0.5, 4], [0.5, 0.75, 1], [0.75, null, 0]]
   },
   "lth_realized_price": {
-    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 20, 6], [20, 50, 3], [50, null, 1]]
+    "_note": "Price stays further above LTH RP as BTC matures — 60% above is still a good entry in 2024+",
+    "ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 30, 7], [30, 80, 5], [80, 150, 3], [150, null, 1]]
   },
   "hash_ribbons": {
     "buy_signal": 10,
@@ -32,4 +40,4 @@
     "normal": 3,
     "euphoria": 0
   }
-}
+}