From c17b3b51678eabc4c3e6b30e0cbb1ffbe1ce5501 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: BizzleBot <bizzlebot@bizzle.lol>
Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 23:55:51 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] v3: accumulation signal optimizer - lower initial thresholds,
 disable PCA, simpler model start

---
 __pycache__/orchestrator.cpython-313.pyc      | Bin 26514 -> 27424 bytes
 config/current_config.json                    |  56 +++---
 config/initial_config.json                    |  39 ++--
 .../__pycache__/analyzer.cpython-313.pyc      | Bin 10236 -> 13363 bytes
 results/iterations.jsonl                      |   2 -
 results/results_iter_1.json                   | 170 ------------------
 results/results_iter_2.json                   | 120 -------------
 7 files changed, 59 insertions(+), 328 deletions(-)
 delete mode 100644 results/iterations.jsonl
 delete mode 100644 results/results_iter_1.json
 delete mode 100644 results/results_iter_2.json

diff --git a/__pycache__/orchestrator.cpython-313.pyc b/__pycache__/orchestrator.cpython-313.pyc
index 4abab40c6848b963f600b49580d69f815ce1e31c..b604ee0faa8a6bf461e94b3afcad861500986995 100644
GIT binary patch
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diff --git a/config/current_config.json b/config/current_config.json
index 2ef9f1d..9ac6e87 100644
--- a/config/current_config.json
+++ b/config/current_config.json
@@ -1,10 +1,9 @@
 {
-  "model_type": "xgboost",
+  "model_type": "hybrid",
   "features": {
     "technical_indicators": [
       "RSI_14",
       "RSI_7",
-      "RSI_21",
       "MACD_line",
       "MACD_signal",
       "MACD_hist",
@@ -12,23 +11,16 @@
       "BB_lower",
       "BB_width",
       "ATR_14",
-      "SMA_5",
-      "SMA_10",
       "SMA_20",
       "SMA_50",
-      "SMA_200",
-      "EMA_5",
       "EMA_10",
       "EMA_20",
-      "EMA_50",
       "OBV",
       "stoch_k",
       "stoch_d",
       "williams_r",
       "CCI_20",
-      "ROC_10",
-      "keltner_upper",
-      "keltner_lower"
+      "ROC_10"
     ],
     "lookback_periods": [
       3,
@@ -38,47 +30,63 @@
     ],
     "use_volume_features": true,
     "use_volatility_features": true,
-    "use_candle_patterns": true,
+    "use_candle_patterns": false,
     "use_lag_features": true,
     "lag_periods": [
       1,
       2,
       3,
       5
-    ]
+    ],
+    "use_pca": true,
+    "pca_variance": 0.95,
+    "use_scaler": true
   },
   "target": {
     "type": "classification",
-    "direction": "long",
-    "horizon_candles": 6,
-    "threshold_pct": 1.5
+    "direction": "both",
+    "horizon_candles": 4,
+    "threshold_pct": 1.0
   },
   "hyperparameters": {
-    "learning_rate": 0.05,
-    "max_depth": 4,
-    "n_estimators": 500,
+    "learning_rate": 0.001,
+    "max_depth": 5,
+    "n_estimators": 300,
     "subsample": 0.8,
     "colsample_bytree": 0.8,
     "min_child_weight": 5,
-    "gamma": 0.1,
-    "reg_alpha": 0.5,
-    "reg_lambda": 2.0
+    "gamma": 0.3,
+    "reg_alpha": 0.1,
+    "reg_lambda": 5.0,
+    "lstm_hidden_size": 128,
+    "lstm_num_layers": 2,
+    "lstm_dropout": 0.3,
+    "lstm_epochs": 100,
+    "lstm_batch_size": 64,
+    "lstm_sequence_length": 20,
+    "lstm_patience": 10
   },
   "strategy": {
-    "entry_threshold": 0.75,
+    "entry_threshold": 0.65,
     "exit_type": "trailing_stop",
     "stop_loss_pct": 2.0,
     "take_profit_pct": 4.0,
     "trailing_stop_pct": 1.5,
     "position_sizing": "confidence_scaled",
     "max_position_pct": 100,
-    "min_confidence_to_trade": 0.55
+    "min_confidence_to_trade": 0.5,
+    "dynamic_sl_tp": true,
+    "atr_sl_multiplier": 1.2,
+    "atr_tp_multiplier": 3.0
   },
   "training": {
     "walk_forward_windows": 5,
     "train_pct": 0.7,
     "validation_pct": 0.15,
-    "test_pct": 0.15
+    "test_pct": 0.15,
+    "rolling_window": true,
+    "rolling_train_size": 3000,
+    "rolling_test_size": 200
   },
   "timeframe": "4h"
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/config/initial_config.json b/config/initial_config.json
index a6c8f19..b6bbe12 100644
--- a/config/initial_config.json
+++ b/config/initial_config.json
@@ -1,29 +1,44 @@
 {
-  "model_type": "hybrid",
+  "model_type": "xgboost",
   "features": {
     "use_price_position": true,
     "use_momentum": true,
     "use_volatility": true,
     "use_volume": true,
     "use_cycle": true,
-    "use_pca": true,
+    "use_pca": false,
     "pca_variance": 0.95,
     "use_scaler": true
   },
   "target": {
     "type": "regression",
-    "forward_periods_1h": [168, 720, 2160],
-    "forward_periods_4h": [42, 180, 540],
-    "weights": [0.2, 0.3, 0.5],
-    "score_range": [0, 100]
+    "forward_periods_1h": [
+      168,
+      720,
+      2160
+    ],
+    "forward_periods_4h": [
+      42,
+      180,
+      540
+    ],
+    "weights": [
+      0.2,
+      0.3,
+      0.5
+    ],
+    "score_range": [
+      0,
+      100
+    ]
   },
   "hyperparameters": {
     "learning_rate": 0.01,
-    "max_depth": 5,
-    "n_estimators": 500,
+    "max_depth": 4,
+    "n_estimators": 300,
     "subsample": 0.8,
     "colsample_bytree": 0.8,
-    "min_child_weight": 10,
+    "min_child_weight": 20,
     "gamma": 0.3,
     "reg_alpha": 0.5,
     "reg_lambda": 3.0,
@@ -36,9 +51,9 @@
     "lstm_patience": 10
   },
   "strategy": {
-    "strong_buy_threshold": 80,
-    "good_buy_threshold": 70,
-    "poor_threshold": 30
+    "strong_buy_threshold": 65,
+    "good_buy_threshold": 55,
+    "poor_threshold": 35
   },
   "training": {
     "rolling_window": true,
diff --git a/llm_client/__pycache__/analyzer.cpython-313.pyc b/llm_client/__pycache__/analyzer.cpython-313.pyc
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diff --git a/results/iterations.jsonl b/results/iterations.jsonl
deleted file mode 100644
index 92f6f7f..0000000
--- a/results/iterations.jsonl
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,2 +0,0 @@
-{"iteration": 1, "timestamp": "2026-03-19T22:27:13.722573+00:00", "sharpe": -0.619, "return": -40.57, "max_drawdown": -41.08, "win_rate": 0.279, "trades": 104, "profit_factor": 0.369, "model_type": "xgboost", "is_best": false, "config": {"model_type": "xgboost", "features": {"technical_indicators": ["RSI_14", "RSI_7", "RSI_21", "MACD_line", "MACD_signal", "MACD_hist", "BB_upper", "BB_lower", "BB_width", "ATR_14", "SMA_5", "SMA_10", "SMA_20", "SMA_50", "SMA_200", "EMA_5", "EMA_10", "EMA_20", "EMA_50", "OBV", "stoch_k", "stoch_d", "williams_r", "CCI_20", "ROC_10", "keltner_upper", "keltner_lower"], "lookback_periods": [3, 5, 10, 20], "use_volume_features": true, "use_volatility_features": true, "use_candle_patterns": true, "use_lag_features": true, "lag_periods": [1, 2, 3, 5]}, "target": {"type": "classification", "direction": "long", "horizon_candles": 6, "threshold_pct": 1.0}, "hyperparameters": {"learning_rate": 0.05, "max_depth": 6, "n_estimators": 500, "subsample": 0.8, "colsample_bytree": 0.8, "min_child_weight": 5, "gamma": 0.1, "reg_alpha": 0.1, "reg_lambda": 1.0}, "strategy": {"entry_threshold": 0.6, "exit_type": "trailing_stop", "stop_loss_pct": 2.0, "take_profit_pct": 4.0, "trailing_stop_pct": 1.5, "position_sizing": "confidence_scaled", "max_position_pct": 100, "min_confidence_to_trade": 0.55}, "training": {"walk_forward_windows": 5, "train_pct": 0.7, "validation_pct": 0.15, "test_pct": 0.15}, "timeframe": "4h"}, "results": {"sharpe_ratio": -0.619, "total_return_pct": -40.57, "max_drawdown_pct": -41.08, "win_rate": 0.279, "trade_count": 104, "profit_factor": 0.369, "avg_trade_duration_candles": 3.0, "feature_importances": {"EMA_20": 0.0295, "EMA_5": 0.0232, "OBV": 0.0222, "SMA_200": 0.022, "keltner_upper": 0.0199, "SMA_5": 0.0187, "price_vs_vwap": 0.0186, "RSI_21": 0.0186, "SMA_50": 0.0183, "high_low_range_10": 0.0177, "price_vs_SMA_200": 0.0176, "RSI_14": 0.0175, "EMA_50": 0.0172, "SMA_20": 0.0172, "ATR_pct": 0.0166, "BB_lower": 0.0164, "vwap_approx": 0.0163, "SMA_10": 0.0161, "hist_volatility": 0.0158, "CCI_20": 0.0157, "high_low_range_20": 0.0157, "MACD_signal": 0.0155, "return_5": 0.0155, "MACD_line": 0.0155, "price_vs_SMA_10": 0.0154, "MACD_hist": 0.0154, "price_vs_SMA_50": 0.0149, "return_10": 0.0148, "EMA_10": 0.0147, "BB_width": 0.0147}, "monthly_returns": [-10.9, -2.1, -8.85, 1.24, -3.7, -0.32, -7.86, -7.08, -3.35, -2.22, -2.34, -2.58, -1.06], "equity_curve": [1.0, 0.9835, 0.9619, 0.9407, 0.9279, 0.9075, 0.9043, 0.8954, 0.8959, 0.8942, 0.8794, 0.8649, 0.8808, 0.877, 0.8809, 0.888, 0.8767, 0.8731, 0.8677, 0.8486, 0.8409, 0.8224, 0.8212, 0.8199, 0.8018, 0.7948, 0.7862, 0.8161, 0.8118, 0.8427, 0.8395, 0.8285, 0.8103, 0.7925, 0.7751, 0.7686, 0.7846, 0.7875, 0.788, 0.775, 0.7801, 0.7819, 0.7863, 0.769, 0.7671, 0.7707, 0.7724, 0.7808, 0.7774, 0.7734, 0.7686, 0.765, 0.7529, 0.7443, 0.7356, 0.7304, 0.7183, 0.7254, 0.7164, 0.7007, 0.7096, 0.7026, 0.691, 0.6837, 0.6686, 0.6765, 0.6695, 0.6704, 0.6776, 0.6684, 0.6589, 0.6523, 0.6463, 0.6457, 0.6599, 0.6584, 0.6509, 0.649, 0.6432, 0.6291, 0.6317, 0.6497, 0.6386, 0.6364, 0.6335, 0.63, 0.6196, 0.6176, 0.6166, 0.6159, 0.6182, 0.6115, 0.6156, 0.6159, 0.614, 0.6075, 0.6008, 0.6058, 0.6076, 0.6055, 0.6006, 0.599, 0.5892, 0.5952, 0.5943], "per_window_sharpe": [-2.714, -0.921, -0.39, -1.089, -1.966]}}
-{"iteration": 2, "timestamp": "2026-03-19T22:32:18.314965+00:00", "sharpe": -0.546, "return": -18.32, "max_drawdown": -20.98, "win_rate": 0.34, "trades": 53, "profit_factor": 0.542, "model_type": "xgboost", "is_best": false, "config": {"model_type": "xgboost", "features": {"technical_indicators": ["RSI_14", "RSI_7", "RSI_21", "MACD_line", "MACD_signal", "MACD_hist", "BB_upper", "BB_lower", "BB_width", "ATR_14", "SMA_5", "SMA_10", "SMA_20", "SMA_50", "SMA_200", "EMA_5", "EMA_10", "EMA_20", "EMA_50", "OBV", "stoch_k", "stoch_d", "williams_r", "CCI_20", "ROC_10", "keltner_upper", "keltner_lower"], "lookback_periods": [3, 5, 10, 20], "use_volume_features": true, "use_volatility_features": true, "use_candle_patterns": true, "use_lag_features": true, "lag_periods": [1, 2, 3, 5]}, "target": {"type": "classification", "direction": "long", "horizon_candles": 6, "threshold_pct": 1.5}, "hyperparameters": {"learning_rate": 0.05, "max_depth": 4, "n_estimators": 500, "subsample": 0.8, "colsample_bytree": 0.8, "min_child_weight": 5, "gamma": 0.1, "reg_alpha": 0.5, "reg_lambda": 2.0}, "strategy": {"entry_threshold": 0.75, "exit_type": "trailing_stop", "stop_loss_pct": 2.0, "take_profit_pct": 4.0, "trailing_stop_pct": 1.5, "position_sizing": "confidence_scaled", "max_position_pct": 100, "min_confidence_to_trade": 0.55}, "training": {"walk_forward_windows": 5, "train_pct": 0.7, "validation_pct": 0.15, "test_pct": 0.15}, "timeframe": "4h"}, "results": {"sharpe_ratio": -0.546, "total_return_pct": -18.32, "max_drawdown_pct": -20.98, "win_rate": 0.34, "trade_count": 53, "profit_factor": 0.542, "avg_trade_duration_candles": 2.3, "feature_importances": {"EMA_20": 0.0295, "EMA_5": 0.0274, "OBV": 0.0252, "price_vs_SMA_50": 0.0219, "EMA_10": 0.0214, "SMA_200": 0.0207, "return_lag_5": 0.0191, "SMA_5": 0.0189, "vwap_approx": 0.0187, "price_vs_SMA_200": 0.0186, "BB_lower": 0.0181, "SMA_20": 0.0175, "ATR_pct": 0.0174, "keltner_upper": 0.0172, "volume_sma_20": 0.017, "ATR_14": 0.0169, "return_5": 0.0167, "BB_upper": 0.0166, "SMA_50": 0.0164, "RSI_21": 0.0163, "high_low_range_10": 0.0163, "hist_volatility": 0.0163, "high_low_range_20": 0.0163, "EMA_50": 0.0162, "keltner_lower": 0.016, "MACD_hist": 0.0159, "RSI_14_lag_1": 0.0152, "CCI_20": 0.015, "high_low_range_5": 0.015, "volatility_20": 0.0149}, "monthly_returns": [-2.62, -1.95, -4.71, 1.32, -2.8, 1.53, -1.85, -4.51, -2.54, -3.73, 0.01, -1.05, 2.97, 0.31], "equity_curve": [1.0, 0.9952, 0.9921, 0.9767, 0.974, 0.9579, 0.9754, 0.954, 0.9546, 0.9336, 0.9323, 0.9308, 0.9103, 0.9023, 0.8926, 0.9265, 0.9217, 0.9567, 0.9357, 0.9151, 0.8949, 0.8857, 0.8992, 0.9025, 0.9085, 0.9106, 0.9157, 0.8956, 0.8916, 0.8842, 0.8766, 0.8663, 0.852, 0.8467, 0.828, 0.8386, 0.8304, 0.8167, 0.808, 0.7902, 0.7995, 0.7912, 0.7984, 0.8069, 0.7995, 0.8115, 0.8109, 0.8086, 0.7908, 0.7941, 0.8167, 0.8076, 0.8143, 0.8168], "per_window_sharpe": [-2.302, -0.762, -6.981, -0.909, 4.91]}}
diff --git a/results/results_iter_1.json b/results/results_iter_1.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 661267f..0000000
--- a/results/results_iter_1.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,170 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "sharpe_ratio": -0.619,
-  "total_return_pct": -40.57,
-  "max_drawdown_pct": -41.08,
-  "win_rate": 0.279,
-  "trade_count": 104,
-  "profit_factor": 0.369,
-  "avg_trade_duration_candles": 3.0,
-  "feature_importances": {
-    "EMA_20": 0.0295,
-    "EMA_5": 0.0232,
-    "OBV": 0.0222,
-    "SMA_200": 0.022,
-    "keltner_upper": 0.0199,
-    "SMA_5": 0.0187,
-    "price_vs_vwap": 0.0186,
-    "RSI_21": 0.0186,
-    "SMA_50": 0.0183,
-    "high_low_range_10": 0.0177,
-    "price_vs_SMA_200": 0.0176,
-    "RSI_14": 0.0175,
-    "EMA_50": 0.0172,
-    "SMA_20": 0.0172,
-    "ATR_pct": 0.0166,
-    "BB_lower": 0.0164,
-    "vwap_approx": 0.0163,
-    "SMA_10": 0.0161,
-    "hist_volatility": 0.0158,
-    "CCI_20": 0.0157,
-    "high_low_range_20": 0.0157,
-    "MACD_signal": 0.0155,
-    "return_5": 0.0155,
-    "MACD_line": 0.0155,
-    "price_vs_SMA_10": 0.0154,
-    "MACD_hist": 0.0154,
-    "price_vs_SMA_50": 0.0149,
-    "return_10": 0.0148,
-    "EMA_10": 0.0147,
-    "BB_width": 0.0147
-  },
-  "monthly_returns": [
-    -10.9,
-    -2.1,
-    -8.85,
-    1.24,
-    -3.7,
-    -0.32,
-    -7.86,
-    -7.08,
-    -3.35,
-    -2.22,
-    -2.34,
-    -2.58,
-    -1.06
-  ],
-  "equity_curve": [
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-    0.9835,
-    0.9619,
-    0.9407,
-    0.9279,
-    0.9075,
-    0.9043,
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-    0.7774,
-    0.7734,
-    0.7686,
-    0.765,
-    0.7529,
-    0.7443,
-    0.7356,
-    0.7304,
-    0.7183,
-    0.7254,
-    0.7164,
-    0.7007,
-    0.7096,
-    0.7026,
-    0.691,
-    0.6837,
-    0.6686,
-    0.6765,
-    0.6695,
-    0.6704,
-    0.6776,
-    0.6684,
-    0.6589,
-    0.6523,
-    0.6463,
-    0.6457,
-    0.6599,
-    0.6584,
-    0.6509,
-    0.649,
-    0.6432,
-    0.6291,
-    0.6317,
-    0.6497,
-    0.6386,
-    0.6364,
-    0.6335,
-    0.63,
-    0.6196,
-    0.6176,
-    0.6166,
-    0.6159,
-    0.6182,
-    0.6115,
-    0.6156,
-    0.6159,
-    0.614,
-    0.6075,
-    0.6008,
-    0.6058,
-    0.6076,
-    0.6055,
-    0.6006,
-    0.599,
-    0.5892,
-    0.5952,
-    0.5943
-  ],
-  "per_window_sharpe": [
-    -2.714,
-    -0.921,
-    -0.39,
-    -1.089,
-    -1.966
-  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/results/results_iter_2.json b/results/results_iter_2.json
deleted file mode 100644
index 715b52b..0000000
--- a/results/results_iter_2.json
+++ /dev/null
@@ -1,120 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "sharpe_ratio": -0.546,
-  "total_return_pct": -18.32,
-  "max_drawdown_pct": -20.98,
-  "win_rate": 0.34,
-  "trade_count": 53,
-  "profit_factor": 0.542,
-  "avg_trade_duration_candles": 2.3,
-  "feature_importances": {
-    "EMA_20": 0.0295,
-    "EMA_5": 0.0274,
-    "OBV": 0.0252,
-    "price_vs_SMA_50": 0.0219,
-    "EMA_10": 0.0214,
-    "SMA_200": 0.0207,
-    "return_lag_5": 0.0191,
-    "SMA_5": 0.0189,
-    "vwap_approx": 0.0187,
-    "price_vs_SMA_200": 0.0186,
-    "BB_lower": 0.0181,
-    "SMA_20": 0.0175,
-    "ATR_pct": 0.0174,
-    "keltner_upper": 0.0172,
-    "volume_sma_20": 0.017,
-    "ATR_14": 0.0169,
-    "return_5": 0.0167,
-    "BB_upper": 0.0166,
-    "SMA_50": 0.0164,
-    "RSI_21": 0.0163,
-    "high_low_range_10": 0.0163,
-    "hist_volatility": 0.0163,
-    "high_low_range_20": 0.0163,
-    "EMA_50": 0.0162,
-    "keltner_lower": 0.016,
-    "MACD_hist": 0.0159,
-    "RSI_14_lag_1": 0.0152,
-    "CCI_20": 0.015,
-    "high_low_range_5": 0.015,
-    "volatility_20": 0.0149
-  },
-  "monthly_returns": [
-    -2.62,
-    -1.95,
-    -4.71,
-    1.32,
-    -2.8,
-    1.53,
-    -1.85,
-    -4.51,
-    -2.54,
-    -3.73,
-    0.01,
-    -1.05,
-    2.97,
-    0.31
-  ],
-  "equity_curve": [
-    1.0,
-    0.9952,
-    0.9921,
-    0.9767,
-    0.974,
-    0.9579,
-    0.9754,
-    0.954,
-    0.9546,
-    0.9336,
-    0.9323,
-    0.9308,
-    0.9103,
-    0.9023,
-    0.8926,
-    0.9265,
-    0.9217,
-    0.9567,
-    0.9357,
-    0.9151,
-    0.8949,
-    0.8857,
-    0.8992,
-    0.9025,
-    0.9085,
-    0.9106,
-    0.9157,
-    0.8956,
-    0.8916,
-    0.8842,
-    0.8766,
-    0.8663,
-    0.852,
-    0.8467,
-    0.828,
-    0.8386,
-    0.8304,
-    0.8167,
-    0.808,
-    0.7902,
-    0.7995,
-    0.7912,
-    0.7984,
-    0.8069,
-    0.7995,
-    0.8115,
-    0.8109,
-    0.8086,
-    0.7908,
-    0.7941,
-    0.8167,
-    0.8076,
-    0.8143,
-    0.8168
-  ],
-  "per_window_sharpe": [
-    -2.302,
-    -0.762,
-    -6.981,
-    -0.909,
-    4.91
-  ]
-}
\ No newline at end of file