5538f666c5
PROBLEM: Fixed thresholds based on 2015-2018 extremes meant the score could barely reach 65 in the current cycle. MVRV Z-Score bottoms are getting shallower (-0.6 → -0.4 → -0.3), Puell floors are rising, NUPL extremes are compressing. A 'good buy' in 2024+ looks different than 2018. SOLUTION: Widened scoring ranges across all metrics: - MVRV Z-Score: 0-1.0 now scores 8/10 (was 0-0.5) - Puell Multiple: 0.4-0.7 scores 8/10 (was 0.3-0.5) - NUPL: 0-0.3 scores 8/10 (was 0-0.25) - LTH Realized Price: 0-30% above scores 7/10 (was 0-20%) - 200W SMA: 0-30% above scores 7/10 (was 0-20%) - Drawdown: 40-60% scores 8/10 (was 50-70%) - Fear & Greed: 0-15 scores 10/10 (was 0-10) - RHODL: 0-200 scores 10/10 (was 0-100) RESULT: - Today: 75/100 Strong Accumulation (was 56) - Nov 2022 bottom: 91/100 (still extreme) - 2024-2026 now has meaningful signal variation - Each threshold has a note explaining the cycle compression logic
44 lines
1.8 KiB
JSON
44 lines
1.8 KiB
JSON
{
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"_comment": "Cycle-aware thresholds — widened ranges to account for BTC maturing and diminishing cycle extremes",
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"fear_greed": {
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"ranges": [[0, 15, 10], [15, 30, 8], [30, 45, 5], [45, 55, 3], [55, 75, 1], [75, 100, 0]]
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},
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"puell_multiple": {
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"_note": "Post-halving floors rising: 2016=0.15, 2020=0.3, 2024=0.5+",
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"ranges": [[null, 0.4, 10], [0.4, 0.7, 8], [0.7, 1.0, 5], [1.0, 1.5, 3], [1.5, 2.0, 1], [2.0, null, 0]]
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},
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"mvrv_zscore": {
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"_note": "Bottoms getting shallower: 2015=-0.6, 2018=-0.4, 2022=-0.3, next may be ~0",
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"ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 1.0, 8], [1.0, 2.0, 5], [2.0, 3.0, 3], [3.0, 5.0, 1], [5.0, null, 0]]
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},
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"drawdown": {
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"_note": "Drawdowns compressing: 2014=86%, 2018=84%, 2022=77%, future may max at 50-60%",
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"ranges": [[60, null, 10], [40, 60, 8], [25, 40, 6], [15, 25, 4], [5, 15, 2], [null, 5, 0]]
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},
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"price_vs_200w_sma": {
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"_note": "BTC spends more time above 200W SMA as it matures",
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"ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 30, 7], [30, 60, 5], [60, 100, 2], [100, null, 0]]
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},
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"reserve_risk": {
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"ranges": [[null, 0.002, 10], [0.002, 0.005, 7], [0.005, 0.01, 4], [0.01, 0.02, 2], [0.02, null, 0]]
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},
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"rhodl_ratio": {
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"_note": "RHODL baseline rising with institutional adoption",
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"ranges": [[null, 200, 10], [200, 1000, 7], [1000, 5000, 4], [5000, 20000, 1], [20000, null, 0]]
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},
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"nupl": {
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"_note": "NUPL bottoms getting shallower as BTC matures",
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"ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 0.3, 8], [0.3, 0.5, 4], [0.5, 0.75, 1], [0.75, null, 0]]
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},
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"lth_realized_price": {
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"_note": "Price stays further above LTH RP as BTC matures — 60% above is still a good entry in 2024+",
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"ranges": [[null, 0, 10], [0, 30, 7], [30, 80, 5], [80, 150, 3], [150, null, 1]]
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},
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"hash_ribbons": {
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"buy_signal": 10,
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"recent_recovery": 6,
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"normal": 3,
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"euphoria": 0
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}
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}
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