- ATH: fall back to cached value when fetch fails
- 200D SMA: compute from history.json when CoinGecko blocks us
- Mayer Multiple: derived from 200D SMA fallback
- Drawdown: preserve cached value on ATH fetch failure
- Fixes N/A Drawdown and -- header stats after quick refresh
Previously the backtest engine had hardcoded OLD thresholds that
diverged from scoring/engine.py + config/thresholds.json. Now loads
from thresholds.json directly, ensuring the chart matches the dashboard.
- Time range buttons: 30D, 90D, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 4Y, ALL
- BTC price overlay on right y-axis (orange dashed line)
- Accumulation zone backgrounds (green/yellow/red shading)
- Threshold lines at 65, 50, 35
- Tooltip shows score + zone label + BTC price
- Uses backtest daily_scores for full history (not just score_history.jsonl)
- Smart downsampling: daily for last 2yr, weekly before that
- Chart height increased to 320px
Instead of showing 5 recent days with similar scores (all from the same
2-week window), now picks one example per cycle:
- pre-2016, 2016-17 Bull, 2018-19 Bear, 2020-21 Bull, 2022-23 Bear, 2024+
- Sorted by closest score match, then picks one per cycle
- Shows cycle label in brackets next to each example
- Much more representative of how the score performed across different eras
- Historical data (5693+ points per metric) saved in history.json permanently
- Quick refresh: only updates price + Fear & Greed from APIs (~2 seconds)
- Full refresh: only needed for FIRST-TIME setup or if data is missing
- Daily append: new values added to history.json from cache, not re-scraped
- Startup: uses cached on-chain data if it exists, no unnecessary Playwright launches
- On-chain metrics only update once per day, no reason to re-scrape them
- Quick Refresh button: updates price + Fear & Greed only (~2 seconds)
- Full Refresh button: re-scrapes all on-chain data from LookIntoBitcoin (~2-3 min)
- Background auto-refresh: quick every 15min, full only when on-chain data >6h old
- Cached on-chain data preserved between quick refreshes
- On-chain metrics only update daily anyway, no need to re-scrape every 15min
- Bracket table now shows Avg 30d, 90d, 180d, and 1yr columns
- Signal events show all 4 timeframes
- Current context shows all 4 average returns
- Comparable examples show all available timeframes
- Updated backtest screenshot
COMPLETE PIVOT from ML trading optimizer to on-chain metrics monitor.
Architecture:
- Playwright scrapes LookIntoBitcoin Plotly Dash charts for real on-chain data
- 10 proven metrics: Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, Fear & Greed, Reserve Risk,
RHODL Ratio, NUPL, LTH Realized Price, 200W SMA, Hash Ribbons, Drawdown
- Each metric scores 0-10, composite 0-100
- No ML, no black box — every signal transparent and traceable
- Historical backtest validates scoring against actual BTC forward returns
- Recency-weighted analysis accounts for diminishing cycle returns
Full documentation in ARCHITECTURE.md
Multi-machine optimization loop:
- VPS orchestrator coordinates training and LLM analysis
- Windows PC (RTX 4070 Ti) runs XGBoost/LightGBM/CatBoost with GPU
- Mac Mini runs qwen3.5:27b via Ollama for strategy analysis
Includes 60+ technical features, walk-forward validation,
confidence-scaled position sizing, and automated convergence detection.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
